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Monday, October 7, 2024

Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century | Nature Aging

 Humanity is hitting the upper limit of life expectancy, according to a new study.

What is life expectancy?

Here’s a simple overview of life expectancy trends over recent years for different regions. This can help you understand how life expectancy varies globally.

### Life Expectancy by Region (2021 Estimates)

| Region               | Life Expectancy (Years) |

|----------------------|-------------------------|

| Global Average       | 72.6                    |

| North America        | 79.1                    |

| Europe               | 77.9                    |

| Asia                 | 73.5                    |

| Latin America        | 75.0                    |

| Africa               | 64.5                    |

| Oceania              | 78.5                    |

### Key Points

- **Global Average**: The average life expectancy worldwide has been gradually increasing but varies greatly by region.

- **North America and Europe**: Generally have higher life expectancies due to better health care and living conditions.

- **Africa**: Typically has the lowest life expectancy, influenced by factors like health crises (e.g., HIV/AIDS, malaria) and economic challenges.


For the most current and detailed statistics, you can consult resources like the World Health Organization (WHO) or the World Bank.Life expectancy refers to the average number of years a person is expected to live, based on statistical averages. It is often calculated from birth, but can also be measured at different ages, such as life expectancy at age 65. Factors influencing life expectancy include:

Health Care Access**: Availability and quality of medical services.

Lifestyle Choices**: Diet, exercise, and habits like smoking or alcohol consumption.

Socioeconomic Status**: Education, income level, and occupation.

Genetics**: Family history and inherited health conditions.

Environmental Factors**: Pollution, housing conditions, and community safety.

Life expectancy varies significantly between countries and regions due to these factors. For example, developed countries often have higher life expectancies compared to developing countries. Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of years a baby born in a given year might expect to live, assuming death rates at that time hold constant. It is one of the world’s most important health measures, but it is also imperfect: It is a snapshot estimate that cannot account for deadly pandemics, miracle cures, or other unforeseen developments that might kill or save millions of people.  Advances in medical technology and genetic research — not to mention larger numbers of people making it to age 100 — are not translating into marked jumps in lifespan overall, according to researchers who found shrinking longevity increases in countries with the longest-living populations.

“We have to recognize there’s a limit” and perhaps reassess assumptions about when people should retire and how much money they’ll need to live out their lives, said S. Jay Olshansky, a University of Illinois-Chicago researcher who was lead author of the study published Monday by the journal Nature Aging.

In the new research, Olshansky and his research partners tracked life expectancy estimates for the years 1990 to 2019, drawn from a database administered by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The researchers focused on eight of the places in the world where people live the longest — Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, and Switzerland.

The U.S. doesn’t even rank in the top 40. But it also was included “because we live here” and because of past, bold estimates that life expectancy in the U.S. might surge dramatically in this century, Olshansky said.

Why life expectancy may not be able to rise forever

The study suggests that there’s a limit to how long most people live, and we’ve about hit it, Olshansky said.

The ranks of centenarians will likely grow in the decades ahead, experts say, but that’s because of population growth. The percentage of people hitting 100 will remain limited, likely with fewer than 15% of women and 5% of men making it that long in most countries, Olshansky said.


Global Life Expectancy reveals significant difference between countries, races, income and sex.



Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century | Nature Aging

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