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Sunday, April 5, 2020

States Get Creative To Find And Deploy More Health Workers In COVID-19 Fight - capradio.org

To stop COVID-19, retired doctors are signing up to take clinical shifts. Specialists, including dentists, could move to front line care. And med students are fielding calls in overwhelmed clinics.

 

When Dr. Judy Salerno, who is in her 60s, got word that the New York State health department was looking for retired physicians to volunteer in the coronavirus crisis, she didn't hesitate.

"As I look to what's ahead for New York City, where I live, I'm thinking that if I can use my skills in some way that I will be helpful, I will step up," she says.

Salerno says she doesn't think of herself as a retiree — she's president of The New York Academy of Medicine, which does public health advocacy. But she is essentially retired from clinical practice.


Because of her age, Salerno is among those at higher risk of serious illness if they contract COVID-19. "But I feel that I'm healthy," she says. "I'm working full time, I have no other risk factors, so I do need to be there if needed — it's important for me."

Public health experts say the United States is in for a shortage of health care workers in many places soon, as cases of COVID-19 escalate. First, the ranks of front-line health workers will be stretched thin, as hospitals fill. And if health care workers have to scramble to care for sick patients without enough protective gear, they will get infected with the virus and fall ill, too.

"The reality is that we're facing the inevitable shortage of health care providers," says Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University. "The people that are coming into close contact — and therefore in greatest danger — are the doctors and nurses and people directly examining patients who possibly have coronavirus."
Wishful thinking and harsh realities. 

"The reality is that we're facing the inevitable shortage of health care providers," says Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University. "The people that are coming into close contact — and therefore in the greatest danger — are the doctors and nurses and people directly examining patients who possibly have coronavirus."

To address the coming shortage, states from Hawaii to New Hampshire are loosening their licensing rules to give those with clinical skills the ability to pitch in, such as allowing out-of-state physicians to practice right away, asking retired physicians to volunteer, and more. Most states are making these kinds of regulatory changes, according to a tracker maintained by the Federation of State Medical Boards.

Changes in state rules are just the first step. Volunteer doctors can't simply show up at a hospital ready to work, FSMB President Dr. Humayan Chaudhry explains. Hospitals and health systems need to verify that physicians have the training and licenses they claim to have. "Sometimes that's a laborious process," he says. "Sometimes it takes weeks to complete."

To help speed the process along, Chaudhry says, the Federation of State Medical Boards is offering free access to its physician database, which allows hospitals to quickly verify "where the physicians went to medical school, where they trained, whether or not they've been licensed in one or more jurisdictions, whether they've ever been disciplined, or whether or not they are specially certified by either the American Medical Specialties or the American Osteopathic Association."

In California, for instance, if a physician has been retired and their license is expired, doctors must verify their CME credits are up to date. If it has been more than five years the process is arduous, time-consuming and expensive.  California requires a five-day course at an approved University which costs $20,000.

The downside of including retirees

Although the idea of recruiting retired physicians and nurses has been a fairly popular move among states so far, Redlener thinks it's a bad idea for the front lines of medical care.

"If you start calling in retired doctors, nurses, whatever — these are de facto people at high risk," he says. "They're older — that's why they're retired. Many of them will have serious medical risks on top of that. And if we're going to put them anywhere near the front lines of this particular pandemic crisis, we are endangering some very high-risk people."

In his conversations with public health officials exploring these options, Redlener says, "all avenues are being explored." Nurse practitioners and physician assistants can also work on the front lines if they're willing, he says. And public health officials are also talking about retraining specialists like plastic surgeons and dermatologists so that they could help care for COVID-19 patients. Dentists might be recruited and retrained, too, he adds.

One idea Redlener favors is revisiting the rules about internationally trained physicians who are living in the U.S. "One of the things that I have been thinking and talking about is eliminating — for now — the regulation that you have to repeat your residency in order to practice in the U.S.," he says. "These people are ready to go, and my experience with them is they're very talented, very well-trained and coming from all different countries. That's a pool we should tap."

He adds, "Whatever it is that we do, we should [recognize] that we're putting people in very high risk situations with respect to the coronavirus."


How medical students can help

There's another pool of people at the very start of their medical careers who would like to help out: medical students.

"They're obviously in the process of learning how to be practicing physicians, but there's no reason why they can't also be helpful in the current situation," says Chaudhry of FSMB. He says most third- and fourth-year medical students were recently pulled from hospital rotations because of the dearth of personal protective equipment and the risk of exposure.

"We're working with the national organizations that oversee medical students — both the Association of American Medical Colleges and the American Association of Colleges of Osteopathic Medicine — to make sure that our next generation of physicians who are currently in training are able to come back to the hospitals soon to help out in any way that they can."

Chaudhry says some schools, at least, are considering graduating senior medical students early. "We are beginning to have some early conversations about the current duration of medical school training, the current duration of specialty training for physicians — that's something that we may need to look at at some point, " he says. "We are beginning to have those conversations because nobody knows what the future may hold."

With most med students now sidelined from the hospital, many have been brainstorming ways they can help immediately. Some med students at Harvard, for example, are making infographics and explanatory videos for the general public, which they share on Instagram. And at the University of California, San Francisco, students have held mask drives for local hospitals.

Palak Patel is a fourth-year medical student at Midwestern University. Inspired by medical students at the University of Minnesota, Patel organized, via google-forms, a med student volunteer sign-up program in Chicago and its suburbs.



Some of the things Patel and her peers are volunteering to do make use of their medical training — like fielding calls from patients at several clinics that have been completely inundated, and taking basic medical histories from patients over the phone. But Patel says some med students are also babysitting for hospital workers whose kids are now out of school or doing their grocery shopping.

Patel says she's been delighted with the response from her fellow students. "I've been actually overwhelmed. We've had more than 100 volunteers sign up in 72 hours — my email was just blowing up," she says, and laughs.

"We hope that the situation doesn't worsen," Patel says. "But if it does, we're hoping that we can get more and more involved."

Careful consideration must be given to the exact role in which medical students would function.  They might be useful in triage areas or filling in for licensed physicians in family practice or primary care.

Retired physicians are adept at recognizing illnesses, severity and make rapid decisions based upon decades of experience.  State regulation is a poor indicator for physician competency 







States Get Creative To Find And Deploy More Health Workers In COVID-19 Fight - capradio.org:

Saturday, April 4, 2020

6 Feet is not Enough: Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions: Potential Implications for Reducing Transmission of COVID-19 | Infectious Diseases | JAMA | JAMA Network



This JAMA Insights Clinical Update discusses the need to better understand the dynamics of respiratory disease transmission by better characterizing transmission routes, the role of patient physiology in shaping them, and best approaches for source control in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Respiratory spray from a cough at 24 feet


The image above is a still photograph from a video examining the spray pattern from a typical sneeze or cough when not wearing a mask or covering your nose with your elbow.

The numbers are given by officials, at first 3 feet, then 6 feet are inaccurate.

Owing to the forward momentum of the cloud, pathogen-bearing droplets are propelled much farther than if they were emitted in isolation without a turbulent puff cloud trapping and carrying them forward. Given various combinations of an individual patient’s physiology and environmental conditions, such as humidity and temperature, the gas cloud and its payload of pathogen-bearing droplets of all sizes can travel 23 to 27 feet (7-8 m).3,4 Importantly, the range of all droplets, large and small, is extended through their interaction with and trapping within the turbulent gas cloud, compared with the commonly accepted dichotomized droplet model that does not account for the possibility of a hot and moist gas cloud. Moreover, throughout the trajectory, droplets of all sizes settle out or evaporate at rates that depend not only on their size, but also on the degree of turbulence and speed of the gas cloud, coupled with the properties of the ambient environment (temperature, humidity, and airflow).

Turbulent gas cloud dynamics should influence the design and recommended use of surgical and other masks. These masks can be used both for source control (ie, reducing spread from an infected person) and for protection of the wearer (ie, preventing spread to an unaffected person). The protective efficacy of N95 masks depends on their ability to filter incoming air from aerosolized droplet nuclei. However, these masks are only designed for a certain range of environmental and local conditions and a limited duration of usage.9 Mask efficacy as source control depends on the ability of the mask to trap or alter the high-momentum gas cloud emission with its pathogenic payload. Peak exhalation speeds can reach up to 33 to 100 feet per second (10-30 m/s), creating a cloud that can span approximately 23 to 27 feet (7-8 m). Protective and source control masks, as well as other protective equipment, should have the ability to repeatedly withstand the kind of high-momentum multiphase turbulent gas cloud that may be ejected during a sneeze or a cough and the exposure from them. Currently used surgical and N95 masks are not tested for these potential characteristics of respiratory emissions.



Ref:

Scharfman  BE, Techet  AH, Bush  JWM, , Bourouiba  L.  Visualization of sneeze ejecta: steps of fluid fragmentation leading to respiratory droplets.  Exp Fluids. 2016;57:24.Google ScholarCrossref

Ong  SWX, Tan  YK, Chia  PY,  et al.  Air, surface environmental, and personal protective equipment contamination by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from a symptomatic patient.  JAMA. Published online March 4, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.3227
ArticlePubMedGoogle Scholar


Management of ill travelers at points of entry—international airports, seaports and ground crossings—in the context of COVID-19 outbreak. World Health Organization website. Published on February 16, 2020. Accessed March 13, 2020. https://www.who.int/publications-detail/management-of-ill-travellers-at-points-of-entry-international-airports-seaports-and-ground-crossings-in-the-context-of-covid--19-outbreak








Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions: Potential Implications for Reducing Transmission of COVID-19 | Infectious Diseases | JAMA | JAMA Network:

Wednesday, April 1, 2020

It's Time to Face Facts, America: Masks Work | WIRED

Official advice has been confusing, but the science isn't hard to grok. Everyone should cover-up.


WHEN YOU LOOK at photos of Americans during the 1918 influenza pandemic, one feature stands out above all else: masks. Fabric, usually white gauze, covers nearly every face. Across the country, public health experts recommended universal mask-wearing, and some cities ordered residents to wear them under penalty of fine or imprisonment. The Red Cross made thousands of cloth masks and distributed them for free. Newspapers published instructions for sewing masks at home. “Make any kind of a mask … and use it immediately and at all times,” the Boston commissioner of health pleaded. “Even a handkerchief held in place over the face is better than nothing.”

After the 1918 pandemic, the prophylactic use of masks among the general public largely fell out of favor in America and much of the West. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has almost never advised healthy people to wear masks in public to prevent influenza or other respiratory diseases. 

In the past few months, with medical supplies dangerously diminished, the CDC, US surgeon general Jerome Adams, and the World Health Organization have urged people not to buy masks, paradoxically claiming that masks are both essential for the safety of health care workers and incapable of protecting the public from COVID-19. (WIRED's editorial staff, like the CDC, suggests that healthy people not wear masks.)

Recently, some experts have disputed this contradictory advice. They propose that widespread use of masks is one of the many reasons why China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have controlled outbreaks of coronavirus much more effectively than the US and Europe. “Of course masks work,” sociologist Zeynep Tufekci wrote in a New York Times editorial. “Their use has always been advised as part of the standard response to being around infected people.” Public health expert Shan Soe-Lin and epidemiologist Robert Hecht made a similar argument in the Boston Globe: “We need to change our perception that masks are only for sick people and that it’s weird or shameful to wear one … If more people donned masks it would become a social norm as well as a public health good.” Last week, George Gao, director-general of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that America and Europe are making a "big mistake" by not telling the public to wear masks during the ongoing pandemic.



It is unequivocally true that masks must be prioritized for health care workers in any country suffering from a shortage of personal protective equipment. But the conflicting claims and guidelines regarding their use raise three questions of the utmost urgency: Do masks work? Should everyone wear them? And if there aren’t enough medical-grade masks for the general public, is it possible to make a viable substitute at home? Decades of scientific research, lessons from past pandemics, and common sense suggest the answer to all of these questions is yes.

Considering how badly the US government has botched its response to the ongoing pandemic, and how much better most Asian countries have fared so far, it’s difficult to believe that Japan once regarded America’s management of a viral outbreak as progressive. Had the US federal government listened to expert warnings about an inevitable pandemic and taken the necessary precautions years ago—by investing in domestic mask production, for instance—we would not be faced with such a dire shortage of basic medical equipment today. Mask manufacturers around the world are working overtime and expanding their operations, but it remains uncertain whether they will meet the surging demand; some of the necessary machines cost millions of dollars and take months to construct.

3M ramps up N95 respirator production as demand surges from global coronavirus outbreak


To fill the surge in demand for the devices, particularly the N95 respirator, 3M is ramping up production, which means hosting job fairs, making offers on the spot and expanding its assembly line with robots.

In Aberdeen, South Dakota, more than 650 employees at one of 3M’s largest manufacturing facilities are working overtime to increase face mask production.

The N95 respirator filters 95% of airborne particles, and can even filter out bacteria and viruses, according to the Centers for Disease Control. Many face masks on the market, including surgical masks, do not effectively filter out particles in the air.

Health-care professionals are concerned that 3M and other respirator manufacturers like Honeywell and Kimberly-Clark won’t be able to fulfill all the orders flooding in.

To overcome the present crisis we must summon more than ingenuity and industry, however. We need solidarity. As we move closer to a phase of the pandemic in which people are allowed to mingle again but there is still no vaccine—and therefore still a chance of new outbreaks—universal masking may become even more imperative. The US desperately needs to revive the ethic embodied by the legions of gauze-wrapped faces in photos from 1918. “You must wear a mask not only to protect yourself but your children and your neighbor,” the Red Cross implored a century ago. “The man or woman or child who will not wear a mask now is a dangerous slacker.”







It's Time to Face Facts, America: Masks Work | WIRED:

Lies, Sex and Corona Virus

Top Stories

  • The Department of Health and Human Services' Strategic National Stockpile of medical supplies and personal protective equipment is almost empty, despite the White House's assurance that the United States can fill critical shortages nationwide, according to two Department of Homeland Security officials tasked with resupplying providers pleading for materials to combat the coronavirus pandemic. A spokesperson for the Federal Emergency Management Agency said the government has $16 billion set aside to acquire more materials, and flights from Asia are expected to bring supplies for the next few weeks. (The Washington Post)

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

An urgent dispatch from the COVID-19 front lines

 The U.S. is the new epicenter for this pandemic.  Medicine is only one small tool in this war. Society must do their part.  All of our lives will depend on it.

How to track the pandemic

Doctors are begging the public for basic protective equipment.  Us. The United States of America. Supposedly the most advanced, most privileged nation in the world.




We are in a pandemic dumpster fire. There has been no centralized movement to tackle this escalating threat.  Every hospital, city, county, and state has been left to flounder on its own. I’m not the only one who’s noticed we’re completely floundering, right?  Doctors have turned to FB forums to share information and attempt to standardize care. I see physicians independently trying to coordinate an organized response. I keep thinking: Where is the leadership? Why aren’t they at the helm with a clear message and plan? Why aren’t they coordinating a supply intake and outflow? Why aren’t they coordinating plans for when frontline “soldiers” fall ill? Why haven’t they relayed standardized treatment plans? Why didn’t they push aggressively to shut everything down? We cannot even trust the CDC. The moment they recommended scarves and bandannas, they lost credibility with even the most patient amongst us.  Don’t get me wrong. I’m not criticizing doctors. Most of us have been amazing despite the fact we have been handed a sh*t sandwich and told to eat it. We are clinicians and healers – not politicians, not civic leaders. But what do I know? I’m an overeducated cog in the machine.

Like beggars, we are pleading to any who will listen to give the five masks they have stuffed somewhere in their garage.  Some have resorted to sewing masks, others McGyvering their own. How did this even become an acceptable option? And now this.  Rather than asking us, “How can we help? What do you need?”, administrators tell us to be quiet, cease and desist, wear your (one time use) mask for a week, spray down with Lysol, don’t wear masks at all – you’ll scare the patients. No, you can’t wear what you bought. Don’t talk to the public; don’t talk to the media.  Do you have a fever? No, you can’t be tested. No, you can’t stay home. We are their golden geese and nothing more. Put on your Lysol sprayed mask and keep working.

I am the first to admit that I am bitter. I am angry.  Like many of you, I cannot look away, and the more I look, the more the rage grows.  The fuel isn’t just the malignant negligence on the part of leaders, but the sheer apathy from the public.  It is too much to ask people to stop eating out, stop going to bars, stop with the brunches, the playdates, the trips, and church. Even when we say they are surely killing others and making our jobs impossible, they continue life as usual.

We are physicians. We are experts at triaging and prioritizing action. Our decisions mean the difference between life and death. We regularly balance competing interests in the setting of constrained resources. We fight hard for our patients. Our job has been likened to “walking through minefields in clown shoes.” It breeds humility. If we make a bad decision, the unthinkable happens. And we are frequently reminded of the fragility of life. We have glimpsed the future of COVID-19 and are horrified. At this point, New York alone is outpacing Lombardia, and the U.S. is outpacing every Western country thus far. We aren’t waiting for the cavalry to ride in, because there isn’t one coming. It’s up to us.

How to track the pandemic

Here’s what we should demand of our state and federal governments

Physicians, nurses, and hospitals have been working nonstop for weeks and know the tsunami is here. We should have acted long ago, but we cannot waste time arguing about what could’ve been done. We are in the now, and we are going to need your help. The prescription for ending this epidemic is: leadership, organization, creativity, hard work, and proven public health measures. We will need to draw on every resource to do this in the most efficient and effective manner so we can save lives, and everyone else can get back to their own.

It is critical to flatten the curve. If our ventilators run out, like the toilet paper did, many will die unnecessarily because of shortages. Survival for those who become critically ill is poor, despite every desperate measure we take. Our horror as health care workers on the front line is that we have little to offer patients to change the course of their disease. States can bend the curve and “buy time” with decisive leadership and action. Buying time means we can:

Create better, widely available tests to know who is infected
Acquire PPE to protect health care workers
Adjust our “business as usual” processes
Discover a new therapy that makes this disease an inconvenience and not a death sentence
Find a vaccine that is safe and effective
Reinstate our normal life-saving care for those who are not infected
So, yes, it is incredibly important that everyone stays home now to buy us time and save lives.  But it isn’t enough. What we do with this time purchased at great expense really matters. We are at a crossroads, and the government decisions will determine the path we will take. The task may seem impossible, but it is NOT impossible. It will take unprecedented coordination and effort, but we are fortunate to have roadmaps laid out for us by Singapore and South Korea, democratic nations that are winning the war on COVID-19. South Korea’s daily case count is declining. As of March 23rd, there were more cases of COVID-19 diagnosed in New York City alone than the entire country of Korea. Singapore has lived with this for months longer than we have, yet life goes on, and they have not shut down schools. Their strategy and coordinated efforts have paid off. What it requires, however, is decisive and strong leadership along with the humility to recognize that this is neither “business as usual” nor “disaster as usual.” We cannot be Italy – we will fail.

Here are the immediate steps that governments should take:

Shelter in place. We must limit all nonessential contact to reduce the spread of the virus. This cannot last forever but it will be important to implement the strategies we need.

Strategic planning and organization. We should employ and leverage every resource available in our state to fight this. A team of non-medical professionals, working in parallel to our health systems, state and universities, should be established to offload work and support the state’s COVID-19 response. Best practices and treatment breakthroughs should be distributed widely among the health care community. While the hospitals and physicians are working and preparing, this group should start now working to assist in the following ways:

Determine a strategic plan and framework for prioritizing needs, opportunities, barriers, and communications
Work with the state and federal leadership to overcome regulatory barriers to implementing interventions quickly
Identify and implement initiatives that must be done at the state level and cannot be accomplished by individual health systems alone
Identify and communicate best practices across the state to every overburdened hospital system
Coordinate partnerships with the many corporations willing and poised to make a huge impact
Develop and deploy technology (or workers from other industries) that can make traditional public health measures, such as contact tracing and isolation, scalable
Control hospital hot spots. Hospitals are a major source of spread for COVID-19. If patients decompensate, they tend to do so on day 7 or 8. Patients should only come to the hospital if they need services that cannot be rendered in another location. Hotels, nursing homes, conference facilities, concert venues could be repurposed to house patients who cannot care for themselves at home. We should follow Singapore and Hong Kong, who set up trailer parks and dorms along with home delivery services to those in quarantine. Patients can be monitored via telemedicine for changes in respiratory rate or oxygen saturation to indicate if they need more intensive medical care. If this occurs, they can be taken to dedicated COVID-19 hospitals, where the risk to health care workers is concentrated, and there are no other patients who will become infected by nosocomial spread.

A current issue facing hospitals is the EMTALA law that states no patient can be turned away from the hospital.  Emergency physicians fully support this law, but in this case, it creates a challenge because patients cannot be directed to a designated “COVID-19 hospital” but instead must be fully assessed at whichever hospital they present to first, thus increasing and distributing the risk of health care worker exposure to COVID-19 at additional sites.

How to track the pandemic

The following policies can help containment:

Changes to hospital policies, processes, and organization to focus on containment
Create regulatory guidance instructing patients, EMS and health systems to allow known COVID-19 patients to be sent preferentially to COVID-19 hospitals where care can be cohorted, reducing risk other patients and health care workers
Build or repurpose alternative housing for COVID-19 positive patients who do not need critical care and the homeless who need quarantine
Build telemedicine services to supp

So, yes, it is incredibly important that everyone stays home now to buy us time and save lives.  But it isn’t enough. What we do with this time purchased at great expense really matters. We are at a crossroads, and the government decisions will determine the path we will take. The task may seem impossible, but it is NOT impossible. It will take unprecedented coordination and effort, but we are fortunate to have roadmaps laid out for us by Singapore and South Korea, democratic nations that are winning the war on COVID-19. South Korea’s daily case count is declining. As of March 23rd, there were more cases of COVID-19 diagnosed in New York City alone than the entire country of Korea. Singapore has lived with this for months longer than we have, yet life goes on, and they have not shut down schools. Their strategy and coordinated efforts have paid off. What it requires, however, is decisive and strong leadership along with the humility to recognize that this is neither “business as usual” nor “disaster as usual.” We cannot be Italy – we will fail.

How to track the pandemic

Here are the immediate steps that governments should take:

Shelter in place. We must limit all nonessential contact to reduce the spread of the virus. This cannot last forever but it will be important to implement the strategies we need.

Strategic planning and organization. We should employ and leverage every resource available in our state to fight this. A team of non-medical professionals, working in parallel to our health systems, state and universities, should be established to offload work and support the state’s COVID-19 response. Best practices and treatment breakthroughs should be distributed widely among the health care community. While the hospitals and physicians are working and preparing, this group should start now working to assist in the following ways:

Determine a strategic plan and framework for prioritizing needs, opportunities, barriers, and communications
Work with the state and federal leadership to overcome regulatory barriers to implementing interventions quickly
Identify and implement initiatives that must be done at the state level and cannot be accomplished by individual health systems alone
Identify and communicate best practices across the state to every overburdened hospital system
Coordinate partnerships with the many corporations willing and poised to make a huge impact
Develop and deploy technology (or workers from other industries) that can make traditional public health measures, such as contact tracing and isolation, scalable
Control hospital hot spots. Hospitals are a major source of spread for COVID-19. If patients decompensate, they tend to do so on day 7 or 8. Patients should only come to the hospital if they need services that cannot be rendered in another location. Hotels, nursing homes, conference facilities, concert venues could be repurposed to house patients who cannot care for themselves at home. We should follow Singapore and Hong Kong, who set up trailer parks and dorms along with home delivery services to those in quarantine. Patients can be monitored via telemedicine for changes in respiratory rate or oxygen saturation to indicate if they need more intensive medical care. If this occurs, they can be taken to dedicated COVID-19 hospitals, where the risk to health care workers is concentrated, and there are no other patients who will become infected by nosocomial spread.

How to track the pandemic

A current issue facing hospitals is the EMTALA law that states no patient can be turned away from the hospital.  Emergency physicians fully support this law, but in this case, it creates a challenge because patients cannot be directed to a designated “COVID-19 hospital” but instead must be fully assessed at whichever hospital they present to first, thus increasing and distributing the risk of health care worker exposure to COVID-19 at additional sites.

The following policies can help containment:

Changes to hospital policies, processes, and organization to focus on containment
Create regulatory guidance instructing patients, EMS and health systems to allow known COVID-19 patients to be sent preferentially to COVID-19 hospitals where care can be cohorted, reducing risk other patients and health care workers
Build or repurpose alternative housing for COVID-19 positive patients who do not need critical care and the homeless who need quarantine
Build telemedicine services to support home care and identify patients who need to be hospitalized
Coordinate hospitals at a state level, to allow for isolation of COVID-19 positive patients in the most efficient manner, limit risk and nosocomial spread
Protect health care workers.  Even with appropriate PPE usage, American physicians and nurses have already died. Health care workers need to be appropriately protected to conserve this vital workforce, but also to snuff out the pandemic. In Italy, nearly 1 in 10 of those infected are health care workers. Health care worker infection is a driving force in the spread. It is unethical to expect health care workers to martyr themselves without proper protection. And that means appropriate PPE as well as changes to the “business as usual” processes. The crisis standard of care is triggered by the need for containment, not by volume surges. We can accomplish this with changes to our operations. In the SARS response in Taiwan, utilizing best practices for isolation and triage dramatically reduced health care worker and patient infections. In the 18 hospitals implementing these best practices, zero health care workers and only two patients developed nosocomial SARS infection. In contrast, in the 33 control hospitals, 115 HWSs, and 203 patients developed SARS. Health care workers do not need to die to provide care. If they do, it is a failure of leadership, not knowledge or technology.

Deploy federal disaster assistance. FEMA is an expert in disaster management and communications. The National Guard could be directed to provide boots-on-the-ground assistance. Among the many ways they could help:

Deploy to hospitals and serve as “officers” to watch health care workers as they doff (take off) their PPE to be sure they are not self-contaminating during this most critical step
Assist in rapid deployment of video intercom technology
Set up tent triage to contain and limit the spread of infection
Create community COVID-19 housing in a hotel or other location
Assist in performing mass screening and testing
Perform contact screening per Department of Health protocols
Expand proven public health measures:  The lack of testing has been catastrophic because traditional public health surveillance and case tracking measures have not been available. It is nearly impossible to screen for this virus, given that infected patients can be minimally symptomatic with a diverse array of symptoms. As soon as testing comes available, either PCR or antibody testing, it should be ramped up and deployed as quickly as possible. We will need to change our normal business practices and make this testing widely available.  We need a method to track and communicate results to patients and the department of public health.   Singapore and South Korea perform  “contact tracing” on COVID-19 positive patients and isolate individuals who are at high risk of contracting the virus.  Dr. Tedros Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organization’s director-general, gives this advice: “Find, isolate, test and treat every case, and trace every contact.”

How to track the pandemic







An urgent dispatch from the COVID-19 front lines:

How Canadian AI start-up BlueDot spotted Coronavirus before anyone else had a clue

An AI-based infectious disease surveillance system that searches the world around-the-clock for possible pandemics should have your attention.

How Canadian AI start-up BlueDot spotted Coronavirus before anyone else had a clue

On December 30, 2019, BlueDot, a Toronto-based startup that uses a platform built around artificial intelligence, machine learning and big data to track and predict the outbreak and spread of infectious diseases, alerted its private sector and government clients about a cluster of “unusual pneumonia” cases happening around a market in Wuhan, China.

BlueDot published the first scientific paper on COVID-19, accurately predicting its global spread using our proprietary models. BlueDot disseminated bespoke, near-real-time insights to clients including governments, hospitals, and airlines, revealing COVID-19’s movements. Our intelligence is based on over 40 pathogen-specific datasets reflecting disease mobility and outbreak potential.

BlueDot delivers regular reporting to answer the most pressing questions, including which countries reported local cases, how severely cities outside of China were affected, and which cities risked transmitting COVID-19 despite having no official cases.

How it Works
BlueDot quantifies the risk of exposure to infectious diseases globally, enabling you to protect human health.

We detect outbreaks of over 150 different pathogens, toxins, and syndromes in near-real-time. Our platform scan over 100,000 official and mass media sources in 65 languages per day.

We anticipate dispersion of disease, locally and globally, using anonymous, aggregated data on billions of flight itineraries and hundreds of millions of mobile devices.

We anticipate the impact of disease spread globally and globally using diverse datasets:

Billions of flight itineraries
Real-time climate conditions
Health system capacity
Animal & insect populations
We empower you to mobilize timely, effective, efficient, coordinated, and measured responses to epidemic threats

How does Bluedot work?
BlueDot is proprietary software-as-a-service designed to locate, track and predict infectious disease spread. The BlueDot engine gathers data on over 150 diseases and syndromes around the world searching every 15 minutes, 24 hours a day. This includes official data from organizations like the Center for Disease Control or the World Health Organization. But, the system also counts on less structured information.

Much of BlueDot's predictive ability comes from data it collects outside official health care sources including, for example, the worldwide movements of more than four billion travelers on commercial flights every year; human, animal and insect population data; climate data from satellites; and local information from journalists and healthcare workers, pouring through 100,000 online articles each day spanning 65 languages.

BlueDot’s specialists manually classified the data, developed a taxonomy so relevant keywords could be scanned efficiently, and then applied machine learning and natural language processing to train the system. As a result, it says, only a handful of cases are flagged for human experts to analyze.

BlueDot sends out regular alerts to health care, government, business, and public health clients. The alerts provide brief synopses of anomalous disease outbreaks that its AI engine has discovered and the risks they may pose.

In the case of COVID-19, the system flagged articles in Chinese that reported 27 pneumonia cases associated with a market that had seafood and live animals in Wuhan. In addition to the alert, BlueDot correctly identified the cities that were highly connected to Wuhan using things like global airline ticketing data to help anticipate where the infected might be traveling. The international destinations that BlueDot anticipated would have the highest volume of travelers from Wuhan were: Bangkok, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Taipei, Phuket, Seoul, and Singapore. In the end, 11 of the cities at the top of their list were the first places to see COVID-19 cases.

COVID-19 was not BlueDot’s first hit. The engine has been used to successfully predict that the Zika virus would spread to Florida in 2016, six months before it happened. The software also determined that the 2014 Ebola outbreak would leave West Africa.

The company received a total of $9.4 million in funding in 2019 (including seed funding from Horizons Ventures and a $7 million Series A financing round led by The Co-operators and BDC Capital’s Women in Technology Venture Fund) and now employs a diverse team of 44 people including veterinarians, doctors, epidemiologists, engineers, data scientists and software developers.

Khan is careful not to claim that AI is the total solution to the problem of infectious disease transmission:

By no means would we claim that AI has got this problem solved. It’s just one of the tools in the toolbox. We don’t use artificial intelligence to replace human intelligence, we basically use it to find the needles in the haystack and present them to our team for further investigation and analysis.

But, as the COVID-19 and the Zika discoveries illustrate, finding that needle is no easy or ordinary feat. BlueDot’s automated infectious disease surveillance platform is an invaluable early warning system that can provide a time-critical heads-up to health professionals around the world and potentially save thousands of lives. That, IMHO, is a very good use of AI’s disruptive power.

Image credit - via BlueDot website




How Canadian AI start-up BlueDot spotted Coronavirus before anyone else had a clue:

Monday, March 30, 2020

Pentagon watchdog tapped to lead committee overseeing $2 trillion coronavirus package

Glenn Fine, Inspector General 
for CARES Act


The nation's top government watchdogs on Monday appointed Glenn Fine, the acting inspector general for the Pentagon, to lead the newly created committee that oversees the implementation of the $2 trillion coronavirus relief bill signed by President Donald Trump last week.  

Fine will lead a panel of fellow inspectors general, dubbed the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee, and command an $80 million budget meant to "promote transparency and support oversight" of the massive disaster response legislation. His appointment was made by a fellow committee of inspectors general, assigned by the new law to pick a chairman of the committee. 

Fine, who served as Justice Department inspector general from 2000 to 2011 — spanning parts of the Clinton, Bush, and Obama presidencies — will join nine other inspectors general on the new committee. They include the IGs of the Departments of Defense, Education, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Justice, Labor, and the Treasury; the inspector general of the Small Business Administration; and the Treasury inspector general for Tax Administration.

“Mr. Fine is uniquely qualified to lead the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee, given his more than 15 years of experience as an Inspector General overseeing large organizations — 11 years as the Department of Justice Inspector General and the last 4 years performing the duties of the Department of Defense Inspector General," said Michael Horowitz, the top watchdog at the Justice Department who leads the group of inspectors general that made the appointment. "The Inspector-General Community recognizes the need for transparency surrounding, and strong and effective independent oversight of, the federal government’s spending in response to this public health crisis."

There are political repercussions regarding Fine's mandate to oversee spending and stop misappropriations to other President's goals.
























Pentagon Watch Dog