Saturday, March 28, 2020

Corona Virus, Some Countries have managed to Flatten the Curve

A new respiratory virus, thought to have originated in a food market in Wuhan, China, has put health authorities on high alert. The spread of the novel coronavirus—named 2019-nCoV—has impacted travel, business and spread concern around the world.

The coronavirus outbreak is now a pandemic, the World Health Organization declared on March 11, as global confirmed cases of Covid-19 now surpass 650,000 worldwide, with deaths topping 30,000. The outbreak has spread from the Chinese city of Wuhan in late January to more than 140 countries and territories—affecting every continent except Antarctica—in the course of a month. Cases in Europe now exceed the number in China. Efforts to prevent the pneumonia-like illness from spreading further have led to shuttered cities, widespread flight cancellations and shaken financial markets.

Inevitable Covid 19 Asteroid

Where deaths have occurred	Deaths	Cases
Italy	10,023	92,472
Spain	5,812	72,248
Mainland China	3,295	81,394
Iran	2,517	35,408
France	2,314	37,575
U.S.	1,955	138,648
U.K.	1,019	17,089
Netherlands	639	9,762
Germany	403	56,202
Australia	403	3,583
Belgium	353	9,134
Switzerland	242	13,377
South Korea	144	9,478
Turkey	108	7,402
Sweden	105	3,447
Indonesia	102	1,155
Portugal	100	5,170
Brazil	93	3,477
Austria	68	8,188
Philippines	68	1,075
Denmark	65	2,201
Canada	55	4,757
Japan	49	1,499
Ecuador	48	1,823
Iraq	42	506
Ireland	36	2,415
Egypt	36	576
Greece	32	1,061
Romania	30	1,452
Algeria	29	454

Tracking the Spread of the Coronavirus Outbreak in the U.S.

Since the first U.S. case of the new coronavirus was reported on Jan. 20 in Washington state, more than 110,000 people have been diagnosed, with clusters around New York City, Seattle and in California. At least 1,972 people have died. American health officials have identified multiple people with Covid-19, as the infection is called, without known ties to other outbreaks or patients—a sign the virus is transmitting person-to-person. A lack of testing has hamstrung health workers’ efforts to track the infection.

As cases in the U.S. continue to increase, Governor Andrew Cuomo ordered New Yorkers on March 20 to stay at home for the foreseeable future, the U.S. implemented travel restrictions on flights from Europe and markets have plummeted.

The number of tests performed by each state has varied greatly. As one of the first sources of the outbreak in the U.S., Washington state began widespread testing relatively early. Recently, New York state significantly increased testing, with more than 15,000 additional tests reported on March 23. However, many states have yet to test more than 1,000 people.

Mapping New York City Hospital Beds as Coronavirus Cases Surge

New York City is the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States, putting historic pressure on a world-renowned healthcare system as the number of confirmed cases in the area grows exponentially.

Bloomberg News is tracking how many beds are in each hospital in the city, and is monitoring the search for new ones as the number of cases soars daily.

Much information is unavailable. Citywide hospitalization figures have been updated only sporadically, and hospitals haven’t been disclosing their occupancy or their data on intensive care units and life-saving ventilators.

When can we Stop physical and Social Isolation?

President Trump has stated he would like to see preventive measures be reduced by mid-April. However, most public health authorities indicate that it would be too soon to avoid a resurgence of COVID-19.

The biggest pandemic in decades serves as a reminder of just how big a role infectious disease has played in human history — and will continue to play in the future.

The big picture: Without a victory over an infection, humanity wouldn't have developed the globalized and populous civilization of today. Yet that civilization is vulnerable to COVID-19, which can only be fought by decoupling the connections that underpin the modern world.

COVID-19 is, ironically, a function of the richer, more connected and more populous world created by the defeat of disease.

Background: For most of humanity's history, disease and infection kept a check on human development. Population growth, economic growth, even the spread of people across the planet — all were curbed by the threat of contagion.

As late as 1800, the average global life expectancy was just 29 years. This wasn't because human beings couldn't live to old age but because almost half of all people born died before their 50th birthday, mainly from contagion.

Death from disease in urban areas was so rampant that up until the 19th century, cities were only able to maintain their population through a constant influx of migrants to replace the dead.

All that began to change in the 19th century, with the sanitary revolution and later the widespread development of vaccines and antibiotics.

Untold numbers of lives were saved. Global life expectancy rose — to 71 years on average today — and with it, global population. Freed from the constant reaping of their citizens from infection, cities exploded, their larger populations becoming engines of rapid innovation. Global travel became safer and with it, the global trade that has helped drive startling levels of economic growth over the past century.

"Our defeat of infection overcame the barriers to human development," says Kenny.

Yes, but: That defeat has been so total that we often take it for granted, especially in the developed world, where we are far more likely to die from heart attacks or strokes — conditions human beings rarely lived long enough to suffer from — than infectious disease. As a result, we've let our guard down.

Global vaccination rates have stagnated and declined for diseases like measles in recent years, partially driven by anti-vaxxers who have no memory of a world threatened by childhood diseases.

As antibiotic resistance grows because of overuse, we desperately need new drugs. Yet in January the World Health Organization warned the pipeline for new antibiotics was essentially dry.

And of course, the explosive spread of COVID-19 has shown just how unprepared the world was for a contagious, new infectious disease.

The bottom line: The reason COVID-19 feels so disruptive is that our world was built on the idea that events like this no longer happen. We won't get that world back until we beat this disease. And we can't safeguard that world unless we ensure it won't happen again.

What a coronavirus exit ramp looks like

Americans are looking for an exit ramp away from the extreme social distancing brought on by the coronavirus, but that will require steps we're not yet prepared for, I write with my Axios colleague Caitlin Owens.

The big picture: Responsibly easing off of social distancing will only be possible as the number of new cases levels off, and will depend on extensive testing to avoid another surge in infections.

"The problem is that the next phase of containment is contingent on resources we don't have,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Where it stands: If we're going to back off of aggressive measures like school and business closures, the next phase of the response would involve doing a lot of the things we should have done from the beginning.

That includes quickly identifying and isolating newly infected patients and identifying others they may have infected.
Places that house vulnerable people, like nursing homes, would still need strong oversight.
Yes, but: All of that requires fast, widespread testing, which the U.S. still can't do.

What's next: Syndromic surveillance — testing a random portion of the community — might help the U.S. get a better handle on the true prevalence of COVID-19.

Seattle has launched an effort to do just that, adapting an existing program that checks for influenza prevalence.

Life won’t go back to normal for a long time. Normalcy will return in doses, and at different paces in different parts of the country.

“It’s not like a switch that’s going to be flipped. It’s going to be much more gradual. And people that are high risk are probably going to be the last ones” to see relaxed restrictions, John Hopkins’ Joshua Sharfstein said.

The bottom line: “The worst possible outcome would be a second epidemic, a second wave…. We can’t afford to have this happen again,” said former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb.

Axios Future

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Dr. Fauci Reports That Alcohol May Help People Survive Coronavirus Briefings | The Borowitz Report

Fauci changes Trump's Twitter Password.

“I was just waiting for the right opportunity.” During the daily meeting of the coronavirus task force, the esteemed virologist noticed that, while Trump launched into an extended rant about former Vice-President Joe Biden, he left his phone unattended on the conference-room table.

Springing into action, Fauci surreptitiously took custody of Trump’s phone and changed his Twitter password in a matter of seconds.

“I’d never hacked into a Twitter account before,” he said. “My heart was beating like a rabbit’s.”

Fauci said that there was “little to no chance” of Trump being able to guess his new password. “I used a polysyllabic word,” Fauci said.

C.D.C. Director Says Coronavirus Effort Could Be Helped by Quarantining Pence

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Friday that significant progress in battling the coronavirus could be achieved by today's blog is a parody of current events and is not true

Fauci watches the farce

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—Calling it a “promising development,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Sunday that alcohol may help people survive the most severe effects of coronavirus briefings. He noted that proprietary brands such as Glenlivet single malt scotch showed the best results in clinical trials. with J.J. Corry Irish Whiskey coming in second. He discouraged using rubbing alcohol and frowned upon ingesting hand sanitizers.

Noting that millions of Americans have been exposed to the daily briefings of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, Fauci said that he had voluntarily submitted to a preliminary trial of the alcohol-based therapy.

“What we have found is that a single dosage before the briefing and as much as a double dosage after the briefing do much to alleviate the most acute suffering,” Fauci said.

The esteemed virologist said that if Americans are able to administer additional doses during the briefings, “Consider yourself lucky.”

But, even as Fauci hailed the benefits of the new treatment, he sounded a note of caution. “The effect of this medication is temporary,” he said. “Sadly.”

Fauci’s findings are in line with anecdotal reports indicating that Americans have been alleviating symptoms in a similar manner since November 2016.

Other comments from Anthony Fauci MD

Jared Kushner was missing for several days. An Amber alert was issued, then cancelled when he was found locked in a restroom at Washington, D.C.s Dulles airport attempting to evade TSA agents. He was found to have a flight reservation to Ukraine. Fielding a question at the daily briefing by the Coronavirus Task Force, the esteemed virologist said that it was most likely “a regrettable accident” that resulted in Donald J. Trump’s son-in-law being trapped in the bathroom for nine hours.

“Doors get locked by mistake all the time,” Fauci said.

When a reporter pointed out that the bathroom door had been locked from the outside with a padlock, Fauci replied, “Whoa. That’s a different kettle of fish. I had not heard that. Padlock? That’s crazy.”

Dr. Fauci Says He Has No Idea Who Locked Jared Kushner in Bathroom

Calling his action “in the interest of public health,” Dr. Anthony Fauci changed Donald J. Trump’s Twitter password on Friday.

“This is something I’ve wanted to do for weeks,” Fauci told reporters. “I was just waiting for the right opportunity.”

During the daily meeting of the coronavirus task force, the esteemed virologist noticed that, while Trump launched into an extended rant about former Vice-President Joe Biden, he left his phone unattended on the conference-room table. Calling his action “in the interest of public health,” Dr. Anthony Fauci changed Donald J. Trump’s Twitter password on Friday.

“This is something I’ve wanted to do for weeks,” Fauci told reporters.

CDC calls for quarantining Mike Pence

Speaking to lawmakers on Capitol Hill, the C.D.C. director said that, given Pence’s record as a science denier who mishandled an aids outbreak while he was the governor of Indiana, an immediate quarantine of the Vice-President was “an essential first step". “Mike Pence should be sealed off in a secure area, where he will have no access to a phone or computer,” the director said. “That will go a long way toward containing the harm he might otherwise cause.”

The C.D.C. chief added that there were a number of places ideal for quarantining Pence, all of them in Antarctica.

Shortly after the C.D.C. director’s testimony, Pence forcefully took issue with the assessment. “The threat I pose to the nation has been wildly overstated, and I do not know how to use a computer,” he said.

Trump Screams at Pence for Not Praying Hard Enough to Make Biden Lose

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—A harrowing scene unfolded at the White House on Tuesday night as Donald Trump screamed at Mike Pence for “not praying hard enough” to make Joe Biden lose the Super Tuesday primary contests, sources said.

Witnesses to the vituperative dressing-down of the Vice-President reported that the evening started badly after Trump saw the returns from Virginia, which Biden won handily.

“Mike, you were supposed to tell God to make Sleepy Joe lose,” Trump snapped. “A lot of good your ‘praying’ did.”

ALL TOPICS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A PARODY AND ARE NOT TRUE

WASH YOUR HANDS FREQUENTLY

Dr. Fauci Reports That Alcohol May Help People Survive Coronavirus Briefings | The New Yorker:

Coronavirus: Italy's hardest-hit city wants you to see how COVID-19 is affecting its hospitals | World News | Sky News

World News | Sky News:

Coronavirus: Italy's hardest-hit city wants you to see how COVID-19 is affecting its hospitals.

The sheer number of people succumbing to the coronavirus is overwhelming every hospital in northern Italy. The sheer number of people succumbing to the coronavirus is overwhelming every hospital in northern Italy. The staff frantically wave us out of the way, pushing gurneys carrying men and women on mobile respirators - it's not chaos, but it is hectic. Masked, gloved and in a hazmat suit, my team and I are led through corridors full of gasping people who look terribly ill. The sheer number of people succumbing to the coronavirus is overwhelming every hospital in northern Italy - and it could easily overwhelm the rest of the country as well. In groups, they crowd around the latest patients. Attaching monitors, drips and most importantly respirators. Without them, the patients will simply go downhill fast.

Really fast. Deadly fast.

The staff is working flat out trying to keep their patients from deteriorating further. They are trying to stop them from dying.

I ask what ward I am in. "This isn't really a ward, it's a waiting room, we just have to use every bit of space," my guide, Vanna Toninelli, head of the hospital press office tells me. It looks like an intensive care unit (ICU), but it is actually just an emergency arrivals ward. The ICU is full. The people being treated are new arrivals, but they look far worse than that.

"This isn't really a ward, it's a waiting room, we just have to use every bit of space," my guide, Vanna Toninelli, head of the hospital press office tells me.

The medical teams are fighting a war here and they are losing.

They rush past wards already rammed with beds all filled with people in terrible distress - gasping for air, clutching at their chests and at tubes pumping oxygen into their oxygen-starved lungs.

I'm in the main hospital in Bergamo, the hardest-hit hospital in Italy in the hardest-hit town in the hardest-hit province, Lombardy - and it's just plain scary.

The Italian city of Bergamo, one of the worst-hit by the coronavirus outbreak, is having to transport its dead out of the city as its crematorium is struggling to cope.

Army vehicles have been brought in to move dozens of coffins from Bergamo to other regions, according to Ansa news agency.

The wealthy city, northeast of Milan in Italy's Lombardy region, has recorded at least 93 coronavirus-related deaths as cases continue to grow relentlessly.

Coronavirus: Italy's hardest-hit city wants you to see how COVID-19 is affecting its hospitals |

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